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Post by Annapurna1 on May 26, 2008 12:14:49 GMT -5
contrary to popular myth..the democratic nomination is very much still up in the air for two reasons .. puerto rico...and this link only gives hillary a 20-point advantage.. in past primaries..hillary has [url=this link only assumes a 20-point margin for hillary in PR...but in past primaries.. hillary has done much better than that among hispanic voters...if this trend holds in PR..then a 1.32M voter turnout on a 33-point margin will put hillary solidly ahead in every popular vote count.. while obama will keep the lead in pledged delegetes... furthermore..the upcoming DNC meeting on FL and MI will level the playing field on the delegate count (although not completely) and increase the "magic number" to 2210...the result will be that obama still leads in pledged delegates but no longer holds a majority... so coming into the convention..one candidate will have more popular votes while the other has more PDs.. and neither will be close to the 2210 majority... pretend that your one of the sups at the convention...what would affect your decision?...would you consider brokering an outside candidate?...thx... |
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o8jedi
Jet 
Please, call me "o8"
Posts: 364
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Post by o8jedi on May 26, 2008 16:32:48 GMT -5
Hillary needs to concede. It's embarrassing to her and to the party.
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Post by Annapurna1 on May 27, 2008 1:23:18 GMT -5
what for??...hillary still has an excellent shot at the national popular vote on a sufficintly large (~1.8M) turnout in PR...
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o8jedi
Jet
Please, call me "o8"
Posts: 364
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Post by o8jedi on May 27, 2008 11:01:24 GMT -5
If Al Gore has proven anything besides Global Warming (An Inconvenient Truth made a ton of money, the Market has spoken), it is that one can have the popular vote (and possibly even the electoral vote) and still lose the election. In the end, it comes down to delegates and, considering how many delegates are determined by a percentage of people who voted for a given candidate anyway, it seems to me that Obama is going to be the clear nominee.
If I was a superdelegate, I'd generally go with the state. Of course, I'm in Michigan and Obama wasn't even on the ballot to begin with. So even if I did vote in the primary and the delegates would have been determined right then and there, my vote wouldn't have gone to the guy I wanted it to go to in the first place so that makes it totally irrelevant.
But seriously, she doesn't seem to grasp the idea that she could possibly lose. She's coping with it as if it was a death:
1) Denial - She's still going on with it.
2) Anger - Any one of several not-so-subtle attacks on Obama, including a loose suggestion that Obama would be the prime target for an assassin.
3) Bargaining - Trying to get Michigan and Florida back in to give her a possible chance.
4) Depression - When she sees that, unless there's complete blowouts in all the remaining primaries, she can't win and makes friends with Ben & Jerry.
5) Acceptance - When she accepts the nomination for President of the United States. When she steps aside for Obama to make his run.
Still, if she really wants a Democrat in the White House, she won't be the one to do it. For every person out there who will vote for McCain because Obama is a secret Muslim (which is irrelevant, not to mention a complete lie) or because he's black, there's two who will vote for McCain because Hillary Clinton is the American, left-leaning Margaret Thatcher.
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Post by Annapurna1 on May 27, 2008 13:46:19 GMT -5
yes..its *all* up to the delegates..but no..theres no "clear" nominee...following the DNC FL/MI conference..obama will keep a slim lead in pledged delegates..but will no longer have a majority of PDs.. while hillary will likely have a solid lead in every popular vote count following the PR primary (MN and SD are tiny compared to PR)...
unlike electoral votes..convention delegates are not required by law to vote according to the popular vote in their states..etc...they can vote for obama because he has more PDs.. or they can vote for hillary because she has more popular votes.. or they can vote for another candidate altogether...and the way things stand to stand after the primaries.. its a coin toss between obama..hillary..or someone else...
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Post by Grimmjow of the Funk on May 27, 2008 14:19:06 GMT -5
face it its over Obama is going to win even her campiagn manager is saying it. she was on hardball last week saying that the chances are too slim. what scares me about hillary is what she i fianlly coming out and saying about white working class people not voting for obama. Hillary is done she just has to except it. it is really pissing me off that she is beating the dead horse by dragging this election along like this. as a canvaser for teh DNC i can say that this election lasting this long is not helping the DNC in anyway. she should concede right now. lets move on its time to fight McCain not ourselves.
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