Zenjamin
Ba Sing Se Zuko
Toko supporter
Posts: 2,617
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Post by Zenjamin on Jan 10, 2008 17:47:20 GMT -5
RP's situation is unique in that he as a large internet following. So much so I pretty much discount any internet poll. Also keep in mind people have seen RP and the rest of the Republican candidates debate about 100x already. So him missing out on one debate wouldn't really change any minds. If ANYTHING he should have gotten more votes because of sympathy. except they were not "internet polls" they were the same traditional polls (landline primarily) also, people do NOT vote for the underdog because they feel sorry for him. the mentality is that, if you dont think someone is going to win, and you vote for them anyways, you are throwing your vote away. that someone is able to overcome that mentality and still get in the double digits is impressive and speaks allot about the message. EDIT: _______________________________________ YES!!!Ok, this is why FoxNews kept RP out of the new hampshire. But after they were flooded with complaints and threats to pull funding, they reversed their policy. if you dont have time to watch the whole thing, at least watch the results in the last minute of it at 10:30 PS. Poor McCaine, he would have done so much better if he had not gone up against Paul. He tried it once before (see my new Icon? people were BOOing him during that in support of RP). It turned out bad for him then, why did he try it again?
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historyman12
Fugitive Iroh
IS IT JULY 14TH YET?
Posts: 4,822
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Post by historyman12 on Jan 12, 2008 10:30:28 GMT -5
anyways, polls are not only verry accurate, they are the only measure of accuracy the media can use short of going forward in time to see the results in the future. What? Polls said that that Barack Obama would blow Hillary out of the water. Guess who won? Hillary. 2004, Kerry was winning, and then Bush won by a margin of over 50%. Sorry, but polls aren't to great, my friend. You said that it was some evil work of Fox to not allow Paul in NEw Hampshire. Paul was beaten in Iowa by Thompson. Therefore it is logical that Thompson got a spot rather than Paul. And popularity in debates does not a gret leader make.
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Zenjamin
Ba Sing Se Zuko
Toko supporter
Posts: 2,617
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Post by Zenjamin on Jan 12, 2008 11:43:33 GMT -5
What? Polls said that that Barack Obama would blow Hillary out of the water. Guess who won? Hillary. 2004, Kerry was winning, and then Bush won by a margin of over 50%. Sorry, but polls aren't to great, my friend. I just took an upper level college statistics class. and belive me, I know what im talking about. Polls are not 100% accurate, in fact, they never have more then a 95% confidence interval. but they are our only means of measure to predict how well someone will do in a state. and do you know what a confidence interval is? because its important that you do before you question the accuracy of a servey, because the actual data and the projected data of the survey did fall within the 95% confidence interval, albeit skewed towards the right outlier, and was thus still statistically accurate. no. NO. you cant honestly believe that the performance of the Iowa Caucuses would more accuratly reflect the performance of the New Hampshire Primary. then Surveys taken specifically for and in New Hampshire. the political climate is verry different in those two states, the are much more Independents in New Hampshire. the logic for why the results would be different in those states should not need explanation (and guess what, they were, go figure.) No kidding. I think everyone understands the folly of electing a canadate who you feel you would like to sit down and have a beer with. what matters in your consistency, incorruptibility, and Ideas... and when RP goes into the debate, these are the things people support him on. other canadates, people may just generally like. the way they look, the jokes the make, the color of their skin or weather or not they have testicles. But if you want to talk about what makes a good leader, )consistency, incorruptibility, Ideas, policy, ect...) it is BECAUSE of these things that people support RP in debates, which sets him apart from the others. PS I suggest not trying to defend FoxNews again. anyone who has done their research, knows who Rupert Murdoch is, or has at least watched the documentary "Outfoxed" or "The Corporation " likely roll their eyes at implications that it was "fair and balanced" or without motive... but thats for another thread.
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Post by Grimmjow of the Funk on Jan 12, 2008 14:32:07 GMT -5
you really 37 taken college statistics classes? because historyman is right (i'm afraid to say) projected polls are wrong sometimes look at florida in 2000
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Zenjamin
Ba Sing Se Zuko
Toko supporter
Posts: 2,617
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Post by Zenjamin on Jan 12, 2008 15:37:34 GMT -5
Gaara, I gotta say, sometimes I just dont understand your posts. please reread my post. I said that, yes, polls can be wrong. but the data did fall withing the 95% confidence interval. did you look what a confidence interval is and how it works? no? then dont try to talk statistics with me. but you are right to bring up one thing. Currently, the national polls are done using only landline survey. where as state polls are usually done via, cell-phone, internet, AND landline. now, RP support bast is verry heavily concentrated among youth and the minority (though he has passionate supporters from every cast.) now youth(18-25) and minorities(to a lesser extent) do not even own a permanent land-line phone. its all done through the internet and cell-phones for them. for this reason, state polls are not only more accurate for its own state(go figure : but when grouped together with other states to find the mean, it is more accurate as a national indicator aswell.
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